Risk factors of earthquake inpatient death: a case control study

INTRODUCTION At 2:28 p.m. on 12 May, 2008, a devastating earthquake measuring 8.0 on the Richter scale hit Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province in southwest China, and resulted in the deaths of thousands of people. To date, few epidemiological studies have been conducted on the determinants of the mortality of patients hospitalised after an earthquake. This paper is aimed at identifying the contributing factors of mortality and providing a clinical reference for the management of those injured in earthquakes. METHODS A hospital-based case-control study was conducted. Cases included all deaths (n = 36) due to earthquake injuries in the West China Hospital. Controls were the quake survivors from the same hospital by at a ratio of four survivors to one death matched for sex and age. Data sources included death certificates and medical records. A conditional logistic regression was performed to assess the odds ratio (OR) of variables used in the study. A chi-squared test for trend was performed to reveal the possible relations between risk factor (variable) number and case fatality. RESULTS People with a severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) had the greatest risk of death (adjusted OR = 253.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 8.9 to 7208.6), followed by patients with multiple system organ failure (MSOF; adjusted OR = 87.8, 95% CI = 3.9 to 1928.3). Prior major disease and infection significantly increased the risk of earthquake-related death (adjusted OR = 14.9, 95% CI = 1.9 to 119.0; adjusted OR = 13.7, 95% CI = 1.8 to 103.7; respectively). The number of fatal cases increased as the risk factor numbers also increased. CONCLUSIONS Severe TBI, infection, MSOF and prior major disease are the significant determinants of earthquake-related inpatient death in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Future research with a large sample size including macro- and micro-level factors is needed.